Goldman Sachs has upped the possibility of a recession in 2008 to 40%-45%, up from 30% previously. Reflected in the data below, the good news is that over the last 100 years, recessions have become shorter and shorter.
Recessions of the 20th Century
Duration in Months | Date
23 —— Sept. 1902-Aug. 1904
13 —— May 1907-June 1908
24 —— Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912
23 —— Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914
7 —— Aug. 1918-March 1919
18 —— Jan. 1920-July 1921
14 —— May 1923-July 1924
13 —— Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
43 —— Aug. 1929-March 1933
13 —— May 1937-June 1938
8 —— Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945
11 —— Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949
10 —— July 1953-May 1954
8 —— Aug. 1957-April 1958
10 —— April 1960-Feb. 1961
11 —— Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970
16 —— Nov. 1973-March 1975
6 —— Jan. 1980-July 1980
16 —— July 1981-Nov. 1982
8 —— July 1990-March 1991
8 —— March 2001-Nov. 2001
source: National Bureau of Economic Research
Three of the first four recessions of the 20th century lasted around 2 years each. From 1902 to 1975, recessions happened every few years. It’s a good reminder to me to be patient with my grandmother. She’s been through economic times that I have never seen. In contrast, we have only spent around 3 years in recession during the last 30 years. The last 25 years has been a great run. Will the trend continue? Only time will tell. The graph below is from Technorati data. They download the daily occurrence of certain economic keywords that occur in blogs. The data below reflect a significant spike in the blog chatter using the word “recession” in the past few weeks. The authors of the very popular The Secret book wouldn’t approve of all the chatter about recession. Whether there is anything to that or not I do not know for sure. If we are in for a slide down the economic hill, though, let’s hope that the ride follows the trend of the past few decades and doesn’t last that long.
Provided by: Technorati
Posted by: Wade Young, Denver Mortgage Broker
Another good by-product of acknowledging a recession could be much lower rates than we have even now! Let’s keep fingers crossed!
Great comment!
Isn’t going to be a recession in 2008, is what I think. Foreclosures alone can in no way trigger it. Only way it can happen is if financial stocks and big banks crash as a result of subprime tainted writeoffs. I think that’s all over and done with, to a major degree. Besides, the treasury and the Bush Administration are working on an economic stimulus package, just in case things start going south. Even if it does happen, it’ll happen only when the tax cuts expire in 2010 and 2011.
I definitly think there will be a reccession in 08. That is what all the analysts are saying right now
Now we all now. Not just a recession, but looming worldwide crisis. I wonder in Goldman Sachs analysts when predicting recession simply did look into their own company balance sheets…