Ok, I apologize for the lengthy delay today, but you would not believe how bad a weekend I had, which I will explain if you contact me if you want to know the details. I will leave it at the fact we had an unscheduled layover in Cochabamba, Bolivia. So how does this relate to the mortgage market? Let’s get into that right now.
Well, looking over the last week, mortgage rates failed to drop lower as the media was broadcasting, and in fact they climbed as much as .25%. The mark-to-market rules were relaxed and plenty of speeches this last week that failed and even the dismal jobs picture were not enough to keep mortgage rates down. Adding to that, the increased MBS purchasing by the Fed failed to prevent the increase in mortgage rates. The overall picture and sentiment in the markets is the economy is not doing any worse than expected.
Getting into this week, we are looking at more problems, though the turbulence in the markets will not be anything like what I experienced. The week starts off with nothing more than Treasury Auctions, so mortgage bonds can take a breather from the beatings, which we are already seeing. In fact, the whole week will be fairly quiet. Here is the rundown:
- Monday: 3-mo T-Bill (1:00), 6-mo T-Bill (1:00), STRIPS (3:00)
- Tuesday: 4-week T-Bill (11:30), 52-week T-Bill (11:30), 10-Year TIPS (1:00)
- Wednesday: MBA Purchase Applications (7:00), Crude Inventories (10:30), 3-year T-Note (1:00), FOMC Minutes (2:00)
- Thursday: International Trade (8:30), Jobless Claims (8:30), Balance of Trade (8:30) , Lawrence Summers Speech (12:00), Money Supply (4:30)
- Friday: Markets Closed – Good Friday
As you can see, the only real player this week will be the release of the “Fed Unplugged”, the FOMC Minutes. With a shortened trading week, you can expect volatility. Looking at the charts, we are looking at a failed uptrend, or mortgage backed securities will regain strength and the overall trend will hold. Personally, I don’t expect mortgage rates to move any lower than we have already seen thus far.
Once again, I apologize for the tardiness of this report, and also for the brevity. Normal updates will resume next week and have a very Happy Easter!!!
Fairly quiet week, I suppose, but Larry Summers could light it up at the end with his speech. And happy Easter to to everyone from me too.
Wow, I can only imagine how bad an unscheduled lay over could be! I hope you get to catch up on rest!
Since the jobless claims were actually lower than expected on Thrusday, do you think that will have an impact on the mortgage rates starting to level out and hold steady, or do you think the rates will simply jump again? It would be nice, but I suppose we won’t know if things start to really level out until we get declining jobless claims consitatnly for a number of weeks and, as a result, banks start to feel more confidence in loaning to people. I would love to hear your thoughts and look forward to the next market update!Happy Easter!
I want to know about the failure mortgage rate to drop lower as the media was broadcasting.